RED SWAN MEANING HOW TO
Similar to: Grey rhino, coined by Michele Wucker, author of The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore. When it becomes a full-blown problem with a high impact, people are surprised and act as if it were an unpredictable black swan event. The black elephant is a significant threat, risk or issue that is obvious to everyone (or the experts who give warnings), but no one wants to address or deal with it. A black turkey is an event that is entirely consistent with past data but no one thought would happen.Įxamples: The 1997 Asian financial crisis the 2005 floods in New Orleans.ĭefinition: Mr Peter Ho, Senior Advisor to Singapore’s Centre for Strategic Futures, describes a black elephant as “a cross between a black swan and the proverbial elephant in the room” that goes ignored. Siegel, who also used it to describe the global financial crisis. Similar to: Black turkey, coined by author Laurence B. INSEAD professor Claudia Zeisberger and investment expert David Munro used the term to challenge the idea of the 2007 global financial crisis being an unexpected black swan event. The impact of such events can be estimated and prepared for. Dirty white swanĭefinition: This is an event that is surprising only because of cognitive and human biases, such as ignoring warning signs and dismissing historical events.
On the outcome of the 2016 US presidential elections, Taleb says an event that is “50-50”, or a two-horse race, cannot be a black swan. Similar to: An “unknown unknown”, issues or problems that we are not aware we don’t know.Įxamples: The September 11 attack the emergence of Bitcoin. Popularised by author and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the term comes from an old Western belief that all swans are white, until the first sighting of a black swan challenged the idea that no swans of other colours existed. After the event, with hindsight, people easily make sense of it, even though the event is a rare outlier. Definition: A black swan is a highly improbable event that is difficult to predict and has a massive impact that changes people’s worldviews.
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